Typhoon Geese · Haikui, possibility of contact near the Korean Peninsula “Fujiwara effect?”
Typhoon No. 10 Damrei has disappeared, and Typhoon No. 9 Saola is moving west in the southern China Sea. is heading to
By the way, the possibility of these two typhoons meeting in early September is being mentioned.
▶From the evening of the 29th, the Japan Meteorological Agency started forecasting tropical low pressure area b, which is expected to develop into Typhoon No. 12 Geese.
Regarding the 94W tropical turbulence, which is a step ahead of the tropical depression b, it was predicted that it would move northwest toward Kansai or Shikoku in Japan, (Maeil Newspaper August 29, ‘ Typhoon No. ‘ Report) The expected path in the same context is being confirmed.
For reference, tropical turbulence develops into a tropical depression (low pressure) when the force becomes stronger, and then when the central pressure decreases again, the name of the typhoon is attached.
The Japan Meteorological Agency explained in its announcement at 9:00 pm on the 29th that the tropical low pressure area b, which is expected to develop into a typhoon goose, is located near the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean at the same time.
It then gradually moved northwest, and five days later on the afternoon of September 3, it is expected to be located in the southeast of Kyushu, Japan, and located in the sea just below Shikoku. After that, landing and penetration through these areas seem likely. In this process, there is a possibility that the tropical low pressure area b will be upgraded to the 12th Typhoon Goose.
▶However, the Japan Meteorological Agency also predicts that Typhoon Haikui No. 11 will be located in the sea just east of Shanghai, China on the afternoon of September 3.
At this time, it is expected that the two typhoons will be located quite close to each other, at about 30 degrees north latitude in latitude and between 120 and 135 degrees east longitude in longitude. can be an example.
At the same time, it is possible to carefully examine the possibility of the “Fujiwara effect” or similar movement, in which adjacent typhoons or tropical cyclones influence each other to create a situation such as course coexistence. The process where the two typhoons at the end of their careers come closer like magnets can be interpreted as the Fujiwara effect.
In the previous typhoon-related reports, it was observed that Typhoon No. 9 Saola and Typhoon No. 11 Haikui would be adjacent to each other and create the Fujiwara effect.
Then, with the prospect of Saola and Haikui going their own way to the west and north, respectively, the possibility of ‘close contact’ between Haikui and Typhoon Geese No. 12 occurring around early September is currently being drawn on the weather map based on the expected route. .
▶Finally, looking at the latest forecasted route updates from meteorological authorities for the 11th typhoon Haikui, it is ‘gradually turning right’.
In other words, it is a shape of turning northwest direction into due north direction.
The existing northwest movement does not lead to landing on the east coast of China as it is, but some prediction models point to a more northward Shanghai area or a further eastward turn to the west coast of Korea.
In the midst of this, if the future typhoon geese continue to move메이저사이트 northwest and come all the way to Kyushu and Shikoku in western Japan, the two typhoons will be located quite close in terms of weather.
It is unknown how the two typhoons will affect each other if they meet, and how close they will come to the Korean Peninsula, as well as the aftermath of supplying a lot of water vapor to the ‘autumn rainy season’ that started in Korea from the end of August, will continue to draw attention. Part.
▶On the other hand, as the Japan Meteorological Agency started forecasting the tropical depression b, which is the stage before typhoon geese, from the evening of the 29th, the Korea Meteorological Administration is also expected to start a new tropical depression forecast soon.
Around the time when the Japan Meteorological Agency started forecasting the tropical depression b, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center ( JTWC ) predicted the possibility of developing a typhoon of 94W tropical turbulence from Low to Medium. raised to (medium). There is still a ‘time lag’ between viewing it as a tropical depression or a tropical disturbance, but this seems to be narrowed and resolved soon.
(Update the article) Then, the Korea Meteorological Administration updated the predicted path for the 20th tropical depression at 11:30 pm on the 29th, and explained that it is expected to develop into the 12th typhoon wild goose within 24 hours.
In a similar vein to the Japan Meteorological Agency, it predicted that it would move northwest to the sea just below Kyushu and Shikoku.
Geese is the name submitted by North Korea among 14 typhoon committee members. It means a new goose familiar to us. The English notation is ‘ KIROGI ‘.